How the method works
A risk method, shown on invented schools
Behind this site sits a method for spotting schools that may need support early, from published data. It reads six domains on their own, gives each a band from 0 to 3, weighs a trend as heavily as a level, and writes down the reason for every band. Here it runs on Ashwold, a local authority that does not exist.
Why only invented schools
A public list that labels named schools becomes a league table, whatever its intentions. So real schools on this site get their published figures in context, and the method is shown here, in full, on schools that cannot be mistaken for real ones: invented names, no school numbers, and this notice on every view.
Six domains, no total
Each domain is banded on its own. There is deliberately no overall score: a strong inspection does not cancel a budget deficit, and a single number would hide which conversation is needed.
The bands
- 0 Stable nothing in the data asks for attention
- 1 Monitor worth watching
- 2 Review worth a closer look
- 3 Support conversation worth a support conversation
Attendance
Persistent absence 5 or more points above the national figure for the same phase adds a band; 10 or more goes straight to band 3.
Rising in each of the last two years adds a band; three years adds two.
In Ashwold: 27 at band 0, 1 at band 1, 0 at band 2, 2 at band 3.
Behaviour
A suspension rate 1.5 or more times the national rate adds a band.
Any permanent exclusion in the latest year means at least band 1. Rising suspensions add bands as for attendance.
In Ashwold: 24 at band 0, 2 at band 1, 3 at band 2, 1 at band 3.
Pupil outcomes
Key stage 2 reading, writing and maths 8 or more points below national adds a band; 25 or more is band 3.
Attainment 8 5 or more points below national adds a band; 12 or more is band 3. Falling results add bands. Special schools and alternative provision: not applicable.
In Ashwold: 19 at band 0, 2 at band 1, 0 at band 2, 3 at band 3.
Finance
A revenue deficit means at least band 2; reserves below 5% of income, at least band 1.
Reserves falling 2 years running add a band. Academies report through their trust, so they have no school-level figure.
In Ashwold: 11 at band 0, 6 at band 1, 0 at band 2, 1 at band 3.
Workforce
Teacher sickness above the national average is band 1.
Band 3 needs both severity (4 or more days above) and persistence (above in the previous year too), because one long absence in a small staff is not a pattern. A falling teacher headcount adds bands.
In Ashwold: 16 at band 0, 11 at band 1, 1 at band 2, 2 at band 3.
Inspection
A category such as serious weaknesses is band 3. An earlier-framework grade of requires improvement or inadequate, or a report-card area at needs attention, is band 2; urgent improvement is band 3.
No inspection for more than 5 years is at least band 1. Frameworks are never mapped onto each other.
In Ashwold: 25 at band 0, 1 at band 1, 2 at band 2, 2 at band 3.
Ashwold, an invented authority
Each school is coloured by its highest band in any domain. Invented geography: no real coastline or basemap.
Every invented school, every band, every reason
Open a school to read the sentences the method wrote. Each one quotes the figures that triggered it.
| Invented school | Attendance | Behaviour | Pupil outcomes | Finance | Workforce | Inspection |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marrowby Primary School F-01 · primary
| 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) |
Marrowby Church of England Primary School F-02 · primary
| 0 (Stable) | 1 (Monitor) | 0 (Stable) | 1 (Monitor) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) |
Marrowby Academy F-03 · secondary
| 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 3 (Support conversation) | no data | 1 (Monitor) | 0 (Stable) |
Marrowby Nursery School F-04 · nursery
| 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | n/a | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) |
Marrowby Special School F-05 · special
| 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | n/a | 1 (Monitor) | 3 (Support conversation) | 0 (Stable) |
Greythorpe Primary School F-06 · primary
| 3 (Support conversation) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | no data | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) |
Greythorpe Catholic Primary School F-07 · primary
| 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) |
Greythorpe High School F-08 · secondary
| 0 (Stable) | 3 (Support conversation) | 0 (Stable) | 1 (Monitor) | 1 (Monitor) | 0 (Stable) |
Saltwyke Infant School F-09 · primary
| 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | no data | 3 (Support conversation) | 1 (Monitor) | 0 (Stable) |
Saltwyke Junior School F-10 · primary
| 1 (Monitor) | 1 (Monitor) | 3 (Support conversation) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) |
Saltwyke Academy F-11 · secondary
| 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | no data | 0 (Stable) | 2 (Review) |
Netherwick Primary School F-12 · primary
| 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 3 (Support conversation) | no data | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) |
Netherwick Church of England Primary School F-13 · primary
| 0 (Stable) | 2 (Review) | 1 (Monitor) | 0 (Stable) | 2 (Review) | 1 (Monitor) |
Netherwick Pupil Referral Unit F-14 · alternative provision
| 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | n/a | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) |
Larkhaven Primary School F-15 · primary
| 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 1 (Monitor) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) |
Larkhaven High School F-16 · secondary
| 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | no data | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) |
Quillstone Primary School F-17 · primary
| 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 1 (Monitor) | 2 (Review) |
Quillstone Academy F-18 · primary
| 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | no data | 0 (Stable) | 3 (Support conversation) |
Ravenmere Primary School F-19 · primary
| 0 (Stable) | 2 (Review) | 0 (Stable) | 1 (Monitor) | 3 (Support conversation) | 0 (Stable) |
Ravenmere Church of England Primary School F-20 · primary
| 3 (Support conversation) | 0 (Stable) | 1 (Monitor) | no data | 1 (Monitor) | 0 (Stable) |
Thistledean Primary School F-21 · primary
| 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 1 (Monitor) | 3 (Support conversation) |
Thistledean High School F-22 · secondary
| 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | no data | 1 (Monitor) | 0 (Stable) |
Greythorpe Junior School F-23 · primary
| 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | no data | 1 (Monitor) | 0 (Stable) |
Larkhaven Infant School F-24 · primary
| 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | no data | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) |
Marrowby Junior School F-25 · primary
| 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | no data | 1 (Monitor) | 0 (Stable) |
Ravenmere Academy F-26 · secondary
| 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | no data | 1 (Monitor) | 0 (Stable) |
Quillstone Infant School F-27 · primary
| 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | no data | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) |
Netherwick Academy F-28 · secondary
| 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | no data | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) |
Saltwyke Catholic Primary School F-29 · primary
| 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) | 0 (Stable) |
Thistledean Junior School F-30 · primary
| 0 (Stable) | 2 (Review) | 0 (Stable) | 1 (Monitor) | 1 (Monitor) | 0 (Stable) |
The method’s thresholds were tuned against a real cohort. Real schools’ published figures are on their own pages, in context and unbanded: start from the map of England.